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␈↓ ∧∪SOME PROPOSITIONS ON THE ENERGY CRISIS
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␈↓ α_1. There is a genuine crisis.  It has three components.
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␈↓ α_  a. The  discovery  by  the Arabs  of  oil as  technique  of
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political extortion.   Even if the Arabs are mollified or faced down,
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the technique won't go away  until dependence on them is  eliminated.
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The one sure  way of making them  back down is to  develop a credible
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alternative.    The best  outcome  would be  to develop  a  source of
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energy so powerful that they  will be eager to sell their  oil before
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it becomes unsellable.  They  deserve to have it become unsellable as
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soon as  possible,   because they  have engaged  in immoral  behavior
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which  happens also  to  be  forbidden by  the  U.N. Charter.  In  my
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opinion,  the use of  force should not  be excluded, but  it would be
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better to get around  the necessity of using  their oil not only  for
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the U.S. but for the rest of the world too.
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␈↓ α_b.  The failure  of our  economic, political,   technological
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and  ideological systems to avoid the  crisis that arose even without
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the  Arab  extortion  attempt.    This  failure   has  the  following
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components:
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␈↓ α_  i.  The  economic  system  didn't give  the  producers  the
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incentive to  have the  necessary  capacity on  hand and  to  develop
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necessary  new technologies.    In  part  this is  due  to  political
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interference, but even  under the best of conditions it does not work
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well at anticipating  long range  requirements for qualitatively  new
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technology.   It works especially badly  when the timing of  the need
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for  new  technology is  uncertain  so that  it isn't  clear  that an
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investment  will pay  off.    This  is particularly  applicable  now,
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because  an investor in an  expensive energy process  will be holding
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the bag if free competition among the oil sellers resumes.
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␈↓ α_  ii. The  political  system  delayed the  implementation  of
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necessary  decisions.   The  senators and  representatives  who voted
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80-5 and 361-14 for the Alaska pipeline in November have  favored the
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pipeline for several  years. However most of  them correctly believed
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that the  organized enmity of the environmentalists that would result
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from initiating  action made  it individually preferable  to lie  low
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until  all hope of  the courts  relieving them of  the responsibility
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was gone.    The  environmental  impact  statement  for  the  breeder
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reactor research program is a similar case that  is now pending.  The
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environmentalists  have got  their favorite  judge  to rule  that the
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impact  statement   must  cover  not   merely  the   impact  of   the
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demonstration reactor but  everything that may happen  if breeders go
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into  widespread use.   This obviously cannot be  determined since it
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depends  on future  policy  decisions,  and no  impact  statement  is
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likely  to  be regarded  as  adequate  according  to these  criteria.
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After another two years of delay,  Congress may act as they did  with
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the  pipeline,  but  no congressman  wants  the  onus  of  initiating
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action.
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␈↓ α_  iii.   The technological  community  has pursued  parochial
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interests and  continues to do so.  Thus the  attitude of some of the
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Stanford faculty is not  one of trying  to determine the best  policy
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and putting  their prestige and  influence behind  it.  It  is rather
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for  each group to advertise the  potential advantage of funding what
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they are already  doing at a  higher level.   (While they are not  at
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present in  a mood to offer any  leadership themselves, they probably
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would respond to leadership from the outside.)
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␈↓ α_ iv.   The ideological system of  the country is not  sure it
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wants  the problem solved at  all.  Some people  are so interested in
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other problems that they will hold the economic system  hostage until
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their demands are met.  Others hope  the energy crisis can be used to
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make  other  people change  their  life  styles in  ways  they favor.
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Others have a  general anti-technological and anti-rational  attitude
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that leads  them to exaggerate  the drawbacks of  any particular move
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to improve the situation. The  ideological failure to a great  extent
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underlies the  other failures or  at least  partly explains why  they
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haven't been fixed.
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␈↓ α_(The  notion of  an  ideological system  of  a society  as  a
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parallel  to the  economic, political,  and technological  systems is
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non-standard, but I  think it is  justified.  Consider  it to be  the
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complex of mechanisms  whereby the attitudes of  large groups towards
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life in general and the other systems in particular is determined.)
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␈↓ α_As  a  specific example  of the  effects  of ideology  on the
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energy problem, consider that many people will be  disappointed if it
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turns out  that there will be  energy enough so that  people who like
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big cars will  be able  to continue  to operate  them.   Much of  the
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current  ecological   movements  to  prohibit   this  or   that  have
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motivations  similar to  those that led  to religious  persecution in
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the 18th century, prohibition in the early part of this  century, and
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the current desire  in some parts of our population  to prohibit long
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hair and  marijuana. Actual faults are magnified, once one group gets
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the idea  into its heads  that it  has the  mission of improving  the
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morals  of another.  I recommend  reading ␈↓↓The  Waste  Makers␈↓ by
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Vance Packard and ␈↓↓The Greening  of America␈↓ by Charles Reich  as
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examples of moralism rampant.
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␈↓ α_3. The third component of the energy  crisis is the fact that
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the  world will run  out of  petroleum and natural  gas in so  near a
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future that it is necessary  to start reducing our reliance on  these
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sources of energy right away.
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␈↓ α_I wish to advance the following proposals:
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␈↓ α_1. We should  and can solve  the energy problem.   By solving
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the  energy  problem,   I  mean  getting so  large  and  reliable and
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expandable a  source of  energy so  that energy  does  not limit  the
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economic  system of  the United  States and  the rest  of the  world.
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Putting  it more concretely, energy  is to be  available in a variety
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of forms  at prices  not much  different from  those we  pay now  and
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unrationed,  so that consumption  is limited  only by  willingness to
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pay the  price.   (I  don't advocate  taking the  responsibility  for
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other people's energy problems, but we can  solve our own problems in
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a way  that does not interfere with their  ability to solve their own
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and in a way they can  emulate).  If someone thinks we should  change
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our  life styles  for some  reason, let  him argue  the point  on its
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merits  but  not club  us  into his  way  of life  by  preventing the
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solution of the energy problem.
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␈↓ α_2. The best  solution of our immediate  problems and for  the
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next 15 to  20 years is to  build a very large number  of the present
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more or less standardized nuclear reactors.
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␈↓ α_3.  At  pre  energy  crisis  schedules,  these  reactors were
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taking ten years to get  into operation from the utility  decision to
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go ahead.   President Nixon proposes reducing this to  six years.  In
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my opinion,  we  can build  them  in two  years  if we  give  it  the
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priority Nixon proposes.  This is based on  the fact that the Hanford
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reactor system  which has about the same  capacity as a present power
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station was built  in two years  starting one  month after the  first
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chain  reaction  was   achieved,  i.e.  with  no   prototype  and  no
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experience.    At  present we  have  an industry  that  has  built 30
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nuclear  power plants  already  and  has standard  designs  that  are
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adequate.   If we decide to  build a large number the  cost should go
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way down as the industry learns how to do it.
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␈↓ α_4. The first goal is to stop  using petroleum and natural gas
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to  produce electricity.    At present  prices this  will  require an
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investment of  about $50,000,000,000,  i.e. about  2/3  of one  years
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defense  budget  or   about  1/3  of  one   years  annual  industrial
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investment.   This goal could be achieved in three years allowing one
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year to get started and two years to build the  plants and putting an
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investment of  $25 billion per year.   You may  squabble over whether
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government  or  industry  should  make  this  investment,  but  don't
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squabble too long; I want to turn my thermostat back up.
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To this should be added the investment  required to increase electric
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capacity to meet demand.
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␈↓ α_5.  The  next goal  is  to replace  natural  gas  by hydrogen
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obtained by separating water  into hydrogen and oxygen using  nuclear
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energy using  electrolysis if necessary but  using heat if it  can be
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done   more  efficiently   that  way.     If   it  has  to   be  done
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electrolytically, present  prices of electric  power correspond to  a
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price  of gas of  xx per thousand  cubic feet  of natural gas.   This
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compares with a price  of $.18 that  preferred customers are  getting
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now and $1.00 that some new users are having to pay.
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␈↓ α_Present reserves of natural  gas will last about yy  years at
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the  rate demand is  increasing, and we  should plan  to complete the
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transition before the reserves are  exhausted.  For lack of a  better
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idea, suppose  we consider  starting three years  from now  and build
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capacity linearly  until the process is completed in 1985.  This will
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require an investment of zzz per year.
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␈↓ α_6. Finally,  we  need to  replace petroleum  as  a source  of
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vehicle  fuel.   Present electric  plants produce  energy at  a price
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corresponding to 25 cents per  gallon of gasoline which is about  the
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present wholesale  price of gasoline.   From the production  point of
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view the  simplest solution is again to use hydrogen, and the problem
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of propelling cars with hydrogen  has been studied.  The  engines run
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well  on hydrogen  with little  modification, but  storage  of liquid
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hydrogen in the car is a problem.  The main disadvantage of  hydrogen
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is its bulk,  the low temperature  required for storing it,  and some
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safety  problems.   Still, undoubtedly the  public will  accept these
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disadvantages rather than  give up cars  or seriously restrict  their
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performance.
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␈↓ α_The  following  alternative  should  be  considered:  Extract
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carbon  dioxide  from  the air  and  water from  the  main  and using
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nuclear energy  synthesize the  hydrocarbon motor fuels  we know  and
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love.  If  this can be done, we can  continue our squabbles about how
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to prevent smog without more  than a brief interruption.  (Seriously,
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the automobile  smog problem  is solvable  using internal  combustion
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engines  long  before  we  can  get  much  hydrocarbon  from  nuclear
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sources).  The main advantage  of this over the hydrogen solution  is
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fuel of reasonable density.   An advantage over taking petroleum from
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the  ground is that  this scheme  will not affect  the carbon dioxide
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concentration of  the atmosphere  since the amount  taken out  equals
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the  amount put  back  in.   The  main technological  problem is  the
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chemistry and  chemical  engineering  of  getting  hydrocarbons  from
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carbon dioxide and  water and energy  in a reasonably  efficient way.
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This  problem  hasn't  been  tackled  but  shouldn't be  insuperable.
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Anyway, this  is worth looking  at.   If extraction of carbon dioxide
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from the air is not immediately feasible, the it can be obtained from
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calcium  carbonate,  e.g.  limestone,  which  is  available  in  beds
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thousands of feet thick.
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